Monthly Archives: February 2011

Have Palestinians lost faith in rising up?

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In my analysis for Foreign Policy yesterday, I argued that the PA currently has no viable way of regaining full legitimacy with its own people, and could face some sort of popular protest against it. Today On January 31 Amira Hass had an essay in Haaretz arguing that after two intifadas in as many decades, Palestinians might not ready for another massive upheaval.

I think this assessment is mostly correct, so I am quoting it here as a way of augmenting my own assessment of how Egypt will impact Palestine. But I also think we’re also seeing some new activism by young Palestinians demanding accountability from both the PA and Hamas. These groups couching their demands in terms of unity, not democracy, which is probably a smart decision. In a conversation earlier this week, a young activist in Gaza pointed out to me that Hamas would simply not allow a democracy rally, but is allowing a unity rally to go forward.

Here’s Hass. The meat is at the end of the article:

Both in Gaza and the West Bank, the Palestinian authorities have already proven their excellent ability to suppress demonstrations. Is this what is preventing Palestinians from expressing solidarity with their Arab brethren, who for years were inspired by the scenes of the Palestinian intifada?

The fear that the protests will be suppressed is not the central reason, said a friend who is older than the young people who sought to demonstrate in Ramallah and Gaza.

“We instigated two intifadas and look what came of them – the situation only got worse,” he told me. “The first brought us the Palestinian Authority and then the expansion of the settlements; the second – destruction, Israeli repression that is worse than before, and the Hamas regime. People are depressed. They don’t see any point in protests. The hope that the dictatorship of occupation would fall if we took to the streets – like in Tunisia and Egypt – has evaporated.”

Palestine’s Egypt moment

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As a part of a reporters’ roundtable convened by Foreign Policy, I wrote this piece about how the Egyptian uprising could highlight the bankruptcy of the Palestinian Authority. The roundtable, which includes entries on Yemen, Jordan, Iran, Tunisia, and Algeria, is worth reading. And it’s interesting to see a piece by Nour Odeh, a former correspondent for AlJazeera English, reads the same set of events in Palestine with a more optimistic outlook.

Here’s an excerpt from my piece:

If Palestinians were to stage an uprising against their own authoritarian leaders, Ramallah’s al-Manara Square might be their equivalent of Cairo’s Tahrir Square.

Palestinians celebrated news of the overthrow of Egyptian dictator Hosni Mubarak in al-Manara on Friday night, Feb. 11 — a brave decision, given that their protest was in violation of an explicit orderby the Palestinian Authority (PA) banning demonstrations in solidarity with the uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia.

In Ramallah that night, Palestinians showed a willingness to defy the PA rarely seen in the areas of the West Bank it controls. Civil society activist Omar Barghouti was one of those who joined the Ramallah gathering, which he called a “wonderful celebration.” He held a sign reading “Freedom Wins! 2 Down, 20 to go!” Fireworks could be seen over several West Bank towns.

As publics throughout the Middle East follow Egypt’s lead in demanding accountability from their governments, the PA figureheads in Ramallah — President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad — have good reason to be alarmed. Long before the Egyptian revolution, the PA faced serious questions about its legitimacy from Palestinians who increasingly view it as complicit in Israel’s occupation of their land.

The PA initially sided with the Mubarak regime when the Tahrir uprising broke out, sending security forces to crush pro-democracy protests in the West Bank. Senior PA officials vilified the Egyptian demonstrators, with Abbas aide Tayeb Abdel-Rahim making dark allusions to the protesters’ “suspicious allegiances” to “international and regional forces,” a reference to the laughable theory that the uprising was a foreign or Islamist conspiracy.

Since then, the PA and PLO have adopted a more moderate, more conciliatory tone, responding to the present demands for accountability with three measures: the resignation of chief negotiator Saeb Erekat, the dissolution of the cabinet, and a call for local elections in July and parliamentary and presidential elections by September, though no dates have been set.

Click here to read the rest of the article.

PA/PLO resignations

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In the wake of Mubarak’s overthrow in Egypt, PLO chief negotiator Saeb Erekat announced his resignation on Saturday. Now Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad are replacing their cabinet.

Of the two announcements, Erekat’s is more significant. He has been a fixture of the PLO negotiating infrastructure since the Oslo years. He was a decision-maker.

The cabinet reshuffle is largely cosmetic, and is intended to produce the illusion of change in the aftermath of Egypt. Publics in the Arab world, including Palestine, are going to continue to demand accountability, and the PA and PLO are in trouble.

Abbas and his Ramallah circle are trying to find a way out of this crisis by calling for new parliamentary and presidential elections, a call Hamas has already rejected, on the grounds that political and administrative reconciliation should precede elections.

With their micro-domain in Gaza, Hamas also certainly has a lot to lose in any reconciliation deal, but they have valid point here. If elections are to be held, under whose auspices will they be held? How will the transition take place? These questions will need to be negotiated in the reconciliation process.

Egypt’s government has been the mediator between Hamas and Fatah for the past three years. With Mubarak out of the picture now, a new mediator, probably a Middle Eastern state that enjoys good relations with both sides—Turkey, Qatar, or Saudi Arabia—could move in to help break the impasse.

This is a moment of political possibility. It might be a brief one. Why not demand political renewal in general? Reform and open up the PLO. Hold elections for the Palestinian National Council (not the Legislative council, which only represents Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza) and by doing so engage Palestinians in the diaspora as well.

Mubarak’s speech: Deepening crisis

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Rumors that President Hosni Mubarak would announce his resignation in a televised address to the nation on Thursday evening sent jubilant protesters streaming into Cairo’s Tahrir square. After hours of anticipation, Mubarak took to the airwaves, declaring that he was clinging to office while “delegating” certain powers.

The immediate reaction of the protesters in Tahrir—holding shoes in the air, chanting “He must go!”—demonstrated that, whatever Mubarak intended to do with his speech, it backfired. As AlJazeera’s Ayman Mohyeldin said of the speech: “One thing it will definitely do is mobilize protesters tomorrow, that’s for sure.”

Mubarak threw down the gauntlet tonight. The January 25th movement has proven surprisingly resilient so far, and it shows no signs of quitting.

Aside from that, there are many question marks here. One, obviously, is the role of the military—”Communique Number One” from the Supreme Council of Egyptian Armed Forces—in creating the confusion ahead of Mubarak’s speech, and determining events going forward.  As analyst Tony Karon tweeted, “Never mind Mubarak’s valedictory, I’m waiting for Communique #2.”

Cairo-based analyst Issandr El-Amrani, who I had the pleasure of meeting in December, points out that the military has already been playing a role in countering the revolution, and has also probably already carried out a sort of coup:

Word of this is going to spread and will begin to counter the dominant narrative in Egyptian media about the people and the army being one. The longer this crisis persists, the more difficult for the army to continue either playing a double game or sitting on the fence. With Omar Suleiman’s threats of coups and the protests spreading to work stoppages across the country, decision time will be coming for the protestors to make up their minds about the army (or launch a more pronounced campaign to persuade commanders), for the army’s leadership to decide how it will proceed in a context where it is losing control, and for rank-and-file in the military to decide where they stand in all this.

Egyptians in New York want Mubarak out

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I attended a demonstration on Friday in midtown Manhattan in support of the uprising in Egypt, coinciding with the largest day of protests yet (dubbed the Day of Departure, for the hoped-for departure of Mubarak). I estimated the crowd at between two and three thousand, although I see that the local NBC affiliate pegged it at a conservative “hundreds.” It was an almost entirely Egyptian and Arab crowd, chanting half in Arabic, half in English.

The demonstration began in Times Square, then marched across town to the Egyptian Mission on Second Avenue. The NYPD were aggressive about keeping the demonstrators off the sidewalk and in the designated protest pens. The moment I arrived, I paused for a moment to send a text message. Not a second later a police officer had grabbed me by the shoulder and was hustling me into the pen, where another cop searched my bag. I explained that I was a journalist, but without an NYPD press badge, they wouldn’t have it.

At the rally I met up with two friends, Zach Schwartz-Weinstein (here’s his blog) and Max Ajl, of the blog Jewbonics. As we walked down 42nd street we talked about Gaza, leftist politics in America, and of course, the latest developments in Tahrir Square, Cairo.

Taking good pictures of a demonstration in half-light is impossible. Here’s my photos anyway:

‘We are not leaving until Mubarak leaves’

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Egyptian activist and blogger Mona Seif (@monasosh on Twitter) provided some of the most dramatic eyewitness testimony yet  from  Tahrir Square in Cairo live on Al-Jazeera English early on Thursday morning.

It could become an iconic moment of the Egyptian uprising (although there have been many). Speaking over the sound of gunfire, she describes how she and her fellow demonstrators refuse to leave the square. Weeping, she describes one of her comrades being shot in the head by pro-Mubarak gangs. (Thanks, Mondoweiss, for finding the video):

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSBJwsjakcg&feature=player_embedded]

Blogger and net activist Jillian York transcribed parts of the interview:

If everyone is so concerned, why is Mubarak still there and we’re losing people every minute?

When asked, “What would you like to say to the world?”

We are not leaving this place. There are only two options for the world: Either they stick to mubarak and his regime and we lose thousands of people in this square and it goes from Liberation Square to Massacre Square. Or, they say no to mubarak’s regime and give people here a chance at a real life.

She was then asked who was in the crowds. Her response:

A lot of them are teenage kids, very few of them are older than 25. It’s astonishing but it really is sad because we know this can be avoided and they don’t have to waste their lives.

The presenter then asked if she was reassured by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s earlier words that the violence from the pro-Mubarak side was shocking. Mona responded:

Not really, this is the same hilary clinton who a week ago said mubarak’s country is stable. What would be assuring is for me to hear that Mubarak is about to give an urgent speech and say he is leaving.